Congratulations to our very own Òscar Jordà for being newly elected as a Fellow of the Econometric Society. This ...

Mark M. Spiegel, senior policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and ...

AI adoption and use are still evolving, and the technology itself is changing rapidly. What we know about AI and its impact on productivity growth and the economy remains uncertain. Transformations ...

The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the ...

Understanding housing demand dynamics through two indicators, income growth and population growth, provides important insights into housing affordability. Research shows that average U.S. income ...

The pace of job growth cooled through mid-2025, while the unemployment rate rose relatively little. This seeming puzzle is explained by an even stepdown of labor supply and demand, meaning slowing ...

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from ...

The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms’ input costs, resulting in supply-side effects such as higher inflation and ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff ...

The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient this year, navigating uncertainty, changes in government policy, including tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and taxes, an AI-driven technology ...