As the economy emerges from a crisis, macroeconomic policy confronts a dilemma: a protracted stimulus can foster a more inclusive labor market recovery, yet risks igniting inflation that ultimately ...

This paper studies how minimum wage policy affects firms’ adoption of automation technologies. Using both state-level measures of robot exposure and novel plant-level data on industrial robot imports ...

Improving education and labor market outcomes for low-income students is critical for advancing socioeconomic mobility in the United States. We use longitudinal data on five cohorts of 9th grade ...

We examine the historical frequency of stock market booms, crashes, and bubbles in the United States from 1792 to 2024 using aggregate market data and industry-level portfolios. We define a bubble as ...

Agricultural soils represent one of the largest underutilized opportunities for climate mitigation through land-based carbon sequestration. This study analyzes how farmers make long-term decisions ...

A central insight from neoclassical economics is that international trade operates like an improvement in production technology. It generates mutual aggregate welfare gains for countries as a whole, ...

While economic theory suggests various possibilities, empirical evidence on the distribution of tariff burdens across the supply chain, from producers through distributors to retailers, is limited.

Variation in the quality of financial accounting reporting can explain more than 10 percent of the dispersion in productivity across private US firms.

We estimate income and taxes for the wealthiest group of US households by matching Forbes 400 data to the individual, business, estate, and gift tax returns of the corresponding group in 2010–2020. In ...

Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) reinforce or reduce productivity differences across workers? Existing evidence largely studies AI within firms and occupations, where organizational ...

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative ...

We use newly available, and externally validated, administrative data containing all US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests from September 2015-October 2025. Beyond demonstrating ...