Probability of precipitation (PoPs) is one of the most common elements of a forecast you see on websites and weather apps, ...

All of statistics and much of science depends on probability—an astonishing achievement, considering no one’s really sure what it is ...

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple ...

What Is A Probability Density Function? A probability density function, also known as a bell curve, is a fundamental statistics concept, that describes the likelihood of a continuous random ...

Or consider the more complicated case of weather forecasts. What does it mean when a weatherperson tells us there is a one in six (or 17%) chance of rain tomorrow?

At best, the Win Probability graphic provides a crude quantification of what you’re already feeling. At worst, it gaslights you into second-guessing your sense of the game.

So, traditional probability depends on observations and procedure. To calculate it, we need to have a collection of repeated events on which to base our estimate. Can we learn from the Moon? So what ...