Given a few assumptions, the probability of a conjunction is raised, and the probability of its negation is lowered, by conditionalising upon one of the conjuncts. This simple result appears to bring ...

It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

How do you shape perception ethically when storytelling beats facts? Here is a case for ethical storytelling in our current ...

Prior probability, in Bayesian statistical inference, is the probability of an event based on established knowledge, before empirical data is collected.

Ziheng Yang, Bruce Rannala, Branch-Length Prior Influences Bayesian Posterior Probability of Phylogeny, Systematic Biology, Vol. 54, No. 3 (Jun., 2005), pp. 455-470 ...

WE ARE in a bar, and agree to toss a coin for the next round. Heads, I pay; tails, the drinks are on you. What are your chances of a free pint? Most people – sober ones, at least – would agree: ...