To our surprise, the US economy has not entered a recession over the past two years. This is not because a recession has been avoided altogether but because the current economic cycle has been ...

The “business cycle” might just be one of the oldest ideas in economics. For more than 200 years, economists have been pointing to the tendency of economies to expand, then slow down, contract and ...

Industry life cycle analysis is a key part of fundamental analysis that examines an industry’s current phase to project ...

Rising bond yields and fixed-income volatility will not break the current economic cycle or trigger a systemic crash in risk assets unless the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) breaches 5.5%, ...

The recent awarding of the Nobel Prize for Economics to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford shows that the Keynesian paradigm ...

Two years ago, central banks embarked on the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades to restrain the extraordinarily expansive financing conditions deployed during the pandemic, measures that ...

This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more. This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more. Justin Donald, #1 WSJ/USA Today Best-Selling Author and Founder of The Lifestyle Investor, ...

However, warning signs are mounting that suggest stocks may have come too far, too fast. For instance, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is sitting at its third-priciest reading in ...

As a proponent of the Austrian School of Economics, I fundamentally oppose state intervention in economic affairs, particularly the manipulation of interest rates by central banks. Before addressing ...

What is an economic supercycle? An economic supercycle typically refers to a prolonged period of expansion, which can last as long as a few decades. Opinions vary among economists as to the exact ...

In our opinion, it’s not the case that the US economy has avoided a recession, but rather that the current cycle has been elongated. We use the commodity/gold ratio (the Spot Commodity Index (GNX) ...